We might have been taken for a ride! There may not be even a single new job created last month(Dec 2003).
They should be spending all their time to concentrate on creating jobs, rather than finding ways to manipulate statistics to make them (not us) look good. Let me elaborate.
The news report a few days ago saying jobless rate plunged to 4.5% seems like a miracle to me, unless it is MIW cooking numbers. So I spent today thinking about it, and I now know how the cooking is done!
The MOM has a policy saying that if you are jobless, you MUST register your name with them (travel there, fill up form, etc) and after that, they consider ONE person - you - as jobless. They will let your name exist in their register for THREE months, after which your name will be automatically removed. To reinstate your name in the jobless list, you need to go down again to fill up forms all over again.
The trick is simple - don't care how many out there are jobless, as long as they didn't fill up forms, they DON'T EXIST!!!
This way, they take away the blips from their radar screen! Then they publish news reports saying that 5.5% drop to 4.5% even if less than 0.0001% found jobs. Simple trick isn't it?
Now, imagine if they tweak the 3 months by playing with cut-off dates, or even changing it to 2 months, 1 month, or into 1 week. They can even "make-believe" we have FULL employment!
I propose that they use CPF contributions instead. Anyone whose contribution stopped, had a career history, age 18 to 62, would be counted as unemployed. Reason is that if last month the worker's CPF received no contribution, it will mean s/he hasn't got a job.
What do you guys/gals think of my idea to prevent MIWs from making the jobless population 'disappear'?
The Straits Times dated 31 Jan 2004
Unemployment rate goes down to 4.5%
Surge in job openings in last quarter of the year
By Tammy Tan
MORE job seekers found work in the last three months of last year as the hotel and retail industries bounced back with the post-Sars recovery.
Preliminary estimates from the Manpower Ministry yesterday showed that the unemployment rate for last month dipped to 4.5 per cent, lower than last September's revised forecast of 5.5 per cent.
That translates to an estimated 87,900 residents being unemployed last month.
The late surge in vacancies helped the full-year unemployment rate to an estimated 4.775 per cent - well within the government estimate of between 4 and 5 per cent.
That figure is also slightly higher than the 2002 unemployment rate of 4.4 per cent.
The ministry said that most of the jobs in the last quarter came from the services-producing industries and the 8,000 job creations there were the highest in a year.
Hotels, restaurants and retail stores accounted for much of the increase as travellers came back.
The Conrad Centennial Singapore hotel, for example, hired about 60 workers in the fourth quarter to cater to banquet demand during the year-end festivities.
Labour chief Lim Boon Heng said earlier this week that the feedback from grassroots and union leaders was that employers had started recruiting again and he expected the unemployment rate this year to ease to 4 per cent.
Already, the goods-producing industries have started recruiting. Employment in this sector rose by 3,500 in the last quarter, representing the first rise in three years as increases in manufacturing more than offset the cutbacks in construction.
Acting Minister for Manpower Ng Eng Hen told reporters at a conference on wages yesterday that Singaporean job-seekers were becoming 'more realistic' and more receptive to wage reform measures.
'We need to continue these measures to make it sustained. If the demand is there and the economy continues to do well, I don't see why it cannot be improved further,' he said.
Retrenchment numbers also indicate that things are indeed looking up. About 16,300 workers were axed last year, down almost 15 per cent from the 19,086 laid off in 2002.
Based on a recent labour force survey, those who were jobless last year spent an average of 12 weeks on the job hunt - less than the 13.7 weeks it took on average to get a job the previous year.
Sources and Relevant Links:
sintercom forum Unemployment really going down? Posted by DEARCHER on the sintercom forum:
Singapore Review Job recovery a SHAM (from sintercom) 06 Feb 2004
