FOR the first time, the government has released figures on the extraordinarily large influx of foreign workers during the booming 90s and the sharp subsequent cutback when job creation plunged.
It was forced to release them to counter a damaging report by a prestigious panel of Nanyang Technological University (NTU) economists, which said three out of four new jobs in the past five years had gone to foreigners.
If true, it can politically hurt the People's Action Party (PAP), which is under pressure from unionised workers pressuring to stop "pre-emptive" retrenchment by profitable companies.
Unemployment has reached 4.5% or 90,000 and rising. Union leaders called on senior ministers to send away a portion of the 700,000 foreigners so that unemployed locals can find jobs.
The NTU findings of Dr Lim Chong Yah, former National Wages Council chairman, Dr Tan Khee Giap and Dr Chen Kang came as a shock to Singaporeans who are already numbed by a spate of recent high-profile retrenchment by large corporations.
Unemployment is becoming a hot potato for the government.
Some observers say the PAP could face an election problem in 2007 similar to that of 1984 when 12.4% voters swung to the opposition. At the time, there were several issues that angered voters.
One was a strong belief – proved to be unfounded – that the government was planning to postpone Central Provident Fund payments with the raising of the retirement age from 55 to 60.
Some were angered by the priority scheme for children of graduate mothers in admission to Primary One, which was viewed by ordinary people as elitist and discriminating.
This time, the problem is a more crucial one. Jobs are what created middle-class Singapore and sustain affluence in the families.
Although the jobless rate of 4.5 is lower than in the US and Japan (6.4%), Germany (11%), Hong Kong (8.5%) and others, it is more than what the new generation of citizens here is unaccustomed to.
In his report, Prof Lim Chong Yah said: "Out of four jobs created, only one went to a Singapore resident; three jobs went to the intake of foreign workers.
"If this trend continues, and you forecast into the future, your economic rebound would not have much impact on employment opportunities available for Singapore residents.
"Therefore, we should review this policy of dependence on foreign workers, review it to see whether we can fine-tune or adjust it."
The economists called for a restudy of Singapore's dependence on foreigners, adding their voices to similar appeals from many workers.
A day later, the government responded, calling their conclusions "totally flawed."
Acting Manpower Minister Ng Eng Hen said at a press conference that claims of three quarters of new jobs went to foreigners were way off the mark.
In fact, nine in 10 new jobs went to Singaporeans and residents, and only one went to a foreigner, he stressed.
The minister chided the economists for failing to verify their figures with his ministry or the Department of Statistics before going public with "sensationalistic" claims.
To set the picture straight, he released figures hitherto unknown to researchers.
1992-97: During this high-growth period, a total of 474,800 new jobs were created – almost double the 250,000 figure cited by the NTU team.
For every five jobs created, two had gone to residents and three to foreigners (NTU gave a ratio of four-to-one). That more jobs were given to foreigners than Singaporeans during peak years was a surprise.
The government has long maintained that foreigners would be recruited only in jobs Singaporeans refused or were unable to take up.
1997-2002: As the economy weakened between 1997 and 2002, only 102,000 jobs were created (not 187,000 as cited by NTU). This was a drop of a 79.5% from the previous five years.
Ng added that nine out of 10 jobs had gone to locals (not one-fourth) and only one went to a foreigner.
This means Singapore had allowed some 284,880 foreigners to work here during 1992-97 but only 10,000 in the next five weak years.
The minister explained: "Foreign workers serve as a useful buffer. In good times, when there are plentiful jobs, they serve to meet the demand. In difficult times, they serve to moderate wages and increase the economic pie."
The dispute between the university economists and the government is unprecedented.
On Thursday, the academics stood by their findings. In a statement signed only by Dr Tan and Dr Chen, they said they had studied statistics available in the Manpower Ministry's website.
"If our findings are not reflective of the actual situation, then the ministry has a duty to revise its statistics on the website," they said.
"As professional economists who take a committed interest in the well-being of Singapore, we have never been sensational and will always be professional in our work."
They also said the figures revealed by the minister had come from sources they did not have access to.
The worsening unemployment is also undermining confidence among despondent workers who are members of Singapore's government-linked trade union movement.
"What is the use of being a union member when it can't protect your job?" is a common complaint among the 320,000 unionised workers in Singapore.
Their dissatisfaction is causing political concern because their National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) enjoys a symbiotic partnership with the ruling PAP.
Many rank-and-file members say their representatives are not fighting hard enough to have an impact on staff dismissals or protect workers' rights.
Last week, government "big guns" met 1800 union leaders to explain policies.
First, it was Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong who was bombarded by a flurry of tough questions.
Next to address the unionists was Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, who made one of his rare public attempts to explain policies, showing how serious the situation has become.
Their message to Singaporeans is to be adaptable and innovative; with technology frequently changing, businesses and jobs have become unpredictable.
It is obvious the New Economy has created a Singapore in which the citizens will have to depend on themselves for jobs rather than look to the government.
August 3, 2003
Sources and Relevant Links
The Star Report on foreign labour irks locals Seah Chiang Nee is a veteran journalist and editor of the information website: http://www.littlespeck.com
